Nigerians will soon face an increase in petrol prices due to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) decision to terminate its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, PREMIUM TIMES has learnt.

According to a Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) data pricing framework across eight Nigerian cities, obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the price of petrol at retail outlets nationwide is set to rise to at least N991.21/litre from the current N897/litre.

A data review indicates that in Abuja, the nation’s capital city, petrol may sell as high as N1,029.01 in retail outlets. The price of petrol in Lagos may rise to N991.21 per litre, N1,040.31 in Kano, and N1,007.35 in Calabar.
The product would sell for an average of N1,045.72 per litre in fuel stations in Sokoto, N1,059.39 in Maiduguri, N999.27 in Ibadan, and N1,022.63 in Enugu.
Earlier on Monday, this newspaper exclusively reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) is ending its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, opening up the market for other marketers to buy petrol directly from the refinery.

Dangote Refinery
This means the NNPC will no longer be the sole off-taker, and marketers can now negotiate prices directly with Dangote Refinery. This development aligns with the current practices for fully deregulated products, where refineries can sell directly to marketers on a willing buyer, willing seller basis.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) document, obtained from sources at the agency, provides insight into the subsidy payment differentials paid by NNPC in major Nigerian cities and what Nigerians may pay at the pump in the absence of the subsidy arrangement.
The NMDPRA is the agency responsible for regulating midstream and downstream petroleum operations in Nigeria, including technical, operational, and commercial activities.

Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)
Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)
The Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) data pricing framework, based on ten trading days weighted averages from 23 September to 4 October 2024, showed that the NNPC was paying an average estimated differential of N134.5 per litre in the eight cities.
Following NNPC’s decision to quit its sole off-taker role with Dangote Refinery, indicative pump prices are expected to become effective at fuel stations nationwide, as subsidy payment will no longer be in place.
Although the expected price hike is not static and won’t be dictated by government agencies, the NMDPRA data provides insights into possible pump prices.